In this paper we use a transparent statistical methodology – the synthetic control method – to implement datadriven comparative studies about the impact of autocratic transitions on the evolution of real per capita GDP. The methodology compares the growth of countries that experienced a transition to autocracy with the growth of a convex combination of similar countries that remained democratic, and it accommodates for the time-varying impact of unobservable heterogeneity. We implement this statistical framework on a panel of 160 countries, and then focus on 11 episodes of transition from democracy to autocracy. We find an almost equal split between insignificant, negative, and positive effects. 

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