No News in Business Cycles

Luca Gambetti (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

Riccardo Faini CEIS Seminars

Riccardo Faini CEIS Seminars
When

Friday, April 20, 2012 h. 12:00-13:30

Where
Aula B - Primo piano
Description

This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of "news" shocks (shocks with a delayed e ffect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We fi nd that (i) existing small-scale VAR models are aff ected by "non-fundamentalness" and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their eff ects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) a substantial fraction of business cycle fuctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.

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