No News in Business Cycles
Luca Gambetti (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
Riccardo Faini CEIS Seminars
Riccardo Faini CEIS Seminars
When
Friday, April 20, 2012 h. 12:00-13:30
Where
Aula B - Primo piano
Description
This paper uses a structural, large dimensional factor model to evaluate the role of "news" shocks (shocks with a delayed effect on productivity) in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VAR models are affected by "non-fundamentalness" and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a limited role in explaining the business cycle; (iii) their effects are in line with what predicted by standard neoclassical theory; (iv) a substantial fraction of business cycle fuctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.