Estimation of Cointegrated Model with Exogenous Variables

Sung K. Ahn (Washington State University)

Riccardo Faini CEIS Seminars

Riccardo Faini CEIS Seminars
When

Friday, April 8, 2011 h. 12:00-13:00

Where
Sala del Consiglio
Description

We consider an m-dimensional vector autoregressive process Zt of integratetd order 1, I(1), such that Zt = (Yt',Xt')' where Yt is an my-dimensional vector process of endogenous variables and Xt is an mx-dimensional vector process of exogenous variables with my+ m= m. We assume that there are r cointegration relations in Zt. Johansen (1992), Harbo et al. (1998), and Pesaran et al. (2000), considered inference of such process Zt assuming the weak exogeneity of Xt, which in turn implies that the Xt is not cointegrated. In this paper, we consider the case where exogenous variables are cointegrated with rank rx<mx. Parameterization and estimation of this model are considered and the asymptotic properties of the least square estimator (LSE) and the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) are presented. Parameterization in this paper can be easily applicable to the models considered in Mosconi and Gianni (1992) and Pradel and Rault (2003). The finite sample properties of the estimators are also examined through a Monte Carlo simulation. A real date example is presented to illustrate the methods.

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