Inflation persistence: Implications for a design of monetary policy in a small open economy subject to external shocks

Kuralbayeva Karlygash
CEIS Research Paper
We analyze implications of in.ation persistence for business cycle dynamics following terms of trade and risk-premium shocks in a small open economy, under fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. We show that the country's adjustment paths are slow and cyclical if there is a signi.cant backward-looking element in the in.ation dynamics and the exchange rate is fixed. We also show that such cyclical adjustment paths are moderated if there is a high proportion of forward-looking price setters. In contrast, with an independent monetary policy, flexible exchange rate allows to escape severe cycles, supporting the conventional wisdom about the insulation role of flexible exchange rates.
Number: 93
Keywords: inflation inertia, monetary policy, exchange rates, persistence, Phillips curve, small open economy
JEL codes: E32, F40, F41
Date: Tuesday 20 February 2007
Revision Date: Tuesday 20 February 2007