The Relative Price of Housing and Subsequent GDP Growth in the USA
Waldmann Robert J.
CEIS Research Paper
The Relative Price of Housing and Subsequent GDP Growth in the USA Abstract:In the USA a high relative price of housing is associated with log GDP growth over the following 5 years. It is possible to forecast the great recession using this pattern and a trend both estimated with 20th century data. The forecast recession is even more severe than the actual recession.
Keywords: housing, bubble, e medium term forecasting
Date: Friday, November 29, 2019
Revision Date: Friday, November 29, 2019