Green Ambiguity

Carli Marco
CEIS Research Paper
Agents may be unsure about the productive potential of green technology and of the non-polluting sector due to imprecise information or misguiding news. I study the impact of this deep uncertainty in the context of the transition to a low-carbon economy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with polluting and green sectors and agents who, due to their ambiguity aversion, take decisions under pessimistic expectations about the future productivity of the latter sector. In the short term, losses of confidence can shift the balance of the economy in favor of investment in the polluting sector and lead to an increase in emissions. Coupling environmental tax and green subsidy can partially counteract this imbalance when the long-run forecast of agents ends up realizing, while also avoiding delays in the green transition. A dynamic version of the policy mix is also able to mitigate the short-term effects of drops in confidence.
 

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Number: 591
Keywords: Business Cycle, Ambiguity, E-DSGE
JEL codes: Q55, E32
Volume: 23
Issue: 1
Date: Wednesday, February 5, 2025
Revision Date: Wednesday, February 5, 2025