The Misallocation Costs of Inflation: A Sufficient Statistics Approach
Adam KlausAlexandrov AndreyWeber Henning
CEIS Research Paper
The misallocation costs associated with different aggregate inflation rates can be estimated from micro price data via a set of sufficient statistics. We show that this works for a broad class of price-setting models and in the presence of unobserved product-level heterogeneity in pricing frictions and flexible prices. Applying the sufficient statistics approach to the micro price data underlying the U.K. consumer price index, we find large misallocation costs: aggregate productivity falls by about 1% if aggregate inflation is 8 percentage points above or below its optimal rate of 1.8%. Our findings provide important lessons for the calibration of sticky-price models: standard calibration targets can be uninformative about the sufficient statistics characterizing misallocation costs. To correctly capture these costs, models should be directly calibrated to the sufficient statistics that we uncover.
 
 
Number: 620
JEL codes: E31, E58
Volume: 24
Issue: 1
Date: Monday, April 27, 2026
Revision Date: Monday, April 27, 2026